PETALING JAYA: Perikatan Nasional should have been Barisan Nasional’s main challenger in tomorrow’s Johor state election, but the fallout between PAS and Bersatu left the coalition appearing aimless, says think tank Ilham Centre.
It said PN recorded a major improvement in electoral performance from the March 2022 state election, where it won just three seats, to the 15th general election (GE15) eight months later, where the coalition captured 74 parliamentary seats.
“Based on this trajectory, many expected this state election to set the stage for PN to continue its momentum and offer BN a closer contest in Malay-majority seats,” it said in a statement.
However, it said PN’s image suffered heavily from the constant bickering between PAS and Bersatu, which culminated in their political cooperation coming to an end last month.
Both parties remain PN components and are contesting under the same banner in the Johor polls.
“Political developments over the past two years completely changed the landscape. Tensions between PAS and Bersatu have affected the confidence of supporters in PN’s cohesiveness.
“Mixed signals about PN’s direction and failure to present clear leadership and strategies ahead of the polls have tarnished PN’s image as an alternative bloc prepared to take over the state government,” it said.
Ilham Centre said surveys on the ground found that PN supporters were disappointed with the weak coordination of machinery and disorganised campaign.
As a result, it said, certain segments of PN supporters are expected to return to BN, which would shore up the Umno-led coalition’s majority in Malay seats.
It said segments of PAS supporters appeared more willing to support BN instead of defending PN.
“After the change in landscape in the opposition bloc, some PAS voters no longer see PN as having any prospect of winning,” it said.
“This has caused them to lean towards backing BN in several areas that previously saw close, three-cornered contests.”
However, Ilham Centre said it also found that a large portion of young voters who used to be “obsessed” with PN are unaware about the breakdown in relations between PAS and Bersatu.
“They still see PN as a solid political brand, when the coalition is facing a crisis of confidence and direction at the leadership level,” it said.
It said this gap between grassroots perception and political reality among PN’s elites makes it hard for the coalition to translate such latent support into effective work on the ground.
